Bitcoin (BTC) has outperformed the S&P 500 in half of US buying and selling classes over Glassnode’s newest measurement interval, ending a chronic stretch of dropping extra classes than it gained.
Key factors:
- Bitcoin beat the S&P 500 by returns in 50% of US buying and selling classes over the previous 90 classes, per Glassnode information.
- Bitcoin’s session win price has not exceeded 50% since March 2025.
- The S&P 500 gained a median of 10.7% within the three months after the seven midterm elections since 1922 during which Democrats gained each chambers underneath a Republican president.
Bitcoin ends stretch of weak point in opposition to S&P 500
Data from onchain analytics platform Glassnode reveals that Bitcoin outperformed the S&P 500 in 50% of Wall Street buying and selling classes over a rolling 90-session interval.
The studying, overlaying the 90 classes by way of Wednesday, marks an enchancment after an prolonged interval during which Bitcoin misplaced extra classes than it gained.
“The win rate has not been above 50% since March 2025; for most of the past year, Bitcoin lost more sessions than it won,” Glassnode wrote within the newest version of its common publication, The Week Onchain.
“A return to an even split ends a long stretch of underperformance. Should the win rate climb above 50% and hold there, it would show Bitcoin regaining strength against equities.”
BTC/USD vs. S&P 500 per-session returns. Source: Glassnode
Glassnode added that Bitcoin’s common per-session beneficial properties had been additionally “slightly higher” than these of the S&P 500.
Historical information favors shares after Democratic midterm sweeps
Democrats’ wins within the US midterm elections have additionally drawn consideration to historic inventory market beneficial properties following related outcomes.
Data from crypto asset supervisor Capriole Investments reveals that Democratic sweeps of Congress underneath Republican presidents have traditionally been adopted by robust S&P 500 returns.
Related: Bitcoin hits $80.5K as US shares rally on midterm election outcomes
Of the 26 midterm elections since 1922 (excluding this yr’s vote), Democrats gained each the House and Senate underneath a Republican president seven instances. The S&P 500 gained a median of 10.7% over the next three months.
Average beneficial properties had been 17.5% after six months and 15.5% after a yr.
“There is simply no better election result for markets than we just had,” Capriole founder Charles Edwards commented on the information in a submit on X.
S&P 500 efficiency primarily based on Midterm Election end result. Source: Charles Edwards on X.com
Data from TradingView places Bitcoin’s rolling 20-day correlation with the S&P 500 at 0.63. The measure has grow to be markedly optimistic since August, when each crypto and shares gained because the US Treasury expanded its debt buybacks.
BTC/USD one-day chart with S&P 500 correlation information. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Content Source: cointelegraph.com
